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scrolls on weapons

A recent thread has given me some insight that some people don't seem to quite understand the risk they take with 60% scrolls.



100% scrolls always work; they give +7 weapon attack and IMO; thats pretty good. A Metius with +100% is better than an +6 on an Arund. And given that a Metius is ~+10 speed, that is still _very very_ good.



A 60% scroll on a metius... has a range of values. It can have total failure; reletive failure; and sucess.



Total failure almost never happens. This is a +0 on a bow. So... I'm pretty sure we can pretty much ignore it.



Reletive failure is when you would have a +3 or worse on a bow. A +3 only gives 6 weapon attack; which is worse than a +7 with 100%... and pretty bad in terms of price. You lose quite a lot of value; and you've also lost 7 expensive 60% scrolls.



And sucess is when you get a +4 or better. Obviously; everyone wants that +7, but it rarely happens.



Now: the important part.



You have a 28.97% chance of reletive failure when using 7 60% scrolls. Get that through your head guys, that is the same amount of % that Mortal blow fails. That is about the same amount of times an FA doesn't come out. This is FAR too big a risk to waste 70+ mil on your bows. Now; if you want to be 95%+ sure that you won't get a failure; you have to scroll 3 bows (2% chance of failure).



60% scrolls are still a gamble. On the average; yes; they are better than 100% scrolls. But IMO; when you spend 70 million on a metius; ~30% chance of failure is just way too much.

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